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Portfolio Decision of Short-Term Electricity Forecasted Prices through Stochastic Programming
被引:18
作者:
Sanchez de la Nieta, Agustin A.
[1
]
Gonzalez, Virginia
[1
]
Contreras, Javier
[1
]
机构:
[1] Univ Castilla La Mancha, ETS Ingn Ind, E-13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
来源:
关键词:
ARIMA models;
day-ahead electricity market price;
forecasting portfolio;
stochastic programming;
SERIES;
MARKETS;
MODELS;
TRENDS;
D O I:
10.3390/en9121069
中图分类号:
TE [石油、天然气工业];
TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号:
0807 ;
0820 ;
摘要:
Deregulated electricity markets encourage firms to compete, making the development of renewable energy easier. An ordinary parameter of electricity markets is the electricity market price, mainly the day-ahead electricity market price. This paper describes a new approach to forecast day-ahead electricity market prices, whose methodology is divided into two parts as: (i) forecasting of the electricity price through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models; and (ii) construction of a portfolio of ARIMA models per hour using stochastic programming. A stochastic programming model is used to forecast, allowing many input data, where filtering is needed. A case study to evaluate forecasts for the next 24 h and the portfolio generated by way of stochastic programming are presented for a specific day-ahead electricity market. The case study spans four weeks of each one of the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 using a specific pre-treatment of input data of the stochastic programming (SP) model. In addition, the results are discussed, and the conclusions are drawn.
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页数:19
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