Portfolio Decision of Short-Term Electricity Forecasted Prices through Stochastic Programming

被引:18
作者
Sanchez de la Nieta, Agustin A. [1 ]
Gonzalez, Virginia [1 ]
Contreras, Javier [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Castilla La Mancha, ETS Ingn Ind, E-13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
关键词
ARIMA models; day-ahead electricity market price; forecasting portfolio; stochastic programming; SERIES; MARKETS; MODELS; TRENDS;
D O I
10.3390/en9121069
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
Deregulated electricity markets encourage firms to compete, making the development of renewable energy easier. An ordinary parameter of electricity markets is the electricity market price, mainly the day-ahead electricity market price. This paper describes a new approach to forecast day-ahead electricity market prices, whose methodology is divided into two parts as: (i) forecasting of the electricity price through autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models; and (ii) construction of a portfolio of ARIMA models per hour using stochastic programming. A stochastic programming model is used to forecast, allowing many input data, where filtering is needed. A case study to evaluate forecasts for the next 24 h and the portfolio generated by way of stochastic programming are presented for a specific day-ahead electricity market. The case study spans four weeks of each one of the years 2014, 2015 and 2016 using a specific pre-treatment of input data of the stochastic programming (SP) model. In addition, the results are discussed, and the conclusions are drawn.
引用
收藏
页数:19
相关论文
共 32 条
  • [31] Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future
    Weron, Rafal
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2014, 30 (04) : 1030 - 1081
  • [32] A statistical approach for interval forecasting of the electricity price
    Zhao, Jun Hua
    Dong, Zhao Yang
    Xu, Zhao
    Wong, Kit Po
    [J]. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2008, 23 (02) : 267 - 276