Levee Overtopping Risk Assessment under Climate Change Scenario in Kao-Ping River, Taiwan

被引：3

作者：

Wei, Hsiao-Ping ^{[1
]}

Su, Yuan-Fong ^{[1
]}

Cheng, Chao-Tzuen ^{[1
]}

Yeh, Keh-Chia ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Sci & Technol Ctr Disaster Reduct, New Taipei 23143, Taiwan

[2] Natl Chiao Tung Univ, Dept Civil Engn, Hsinchu 30010, Taiwan

来源：

SUSTAINABILITY | 2020年 / 12卷 / 11期

关键词：

climate change; overtopping risk; levee; EXTREME; PRECIPITATION;

D O I：

10.3390/su12114511

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

With the growing concern about the failure risk of river embankments in a rapidly changing climate, this study aims to quantify the overtopping probability of river embankment in Kao-Ping River basin in southern Taiwan. A water level simulation model is calibrated and validated with historical typhoon events and the calibrated model is further used to assess overtopping risk in the future under a climate change scenario. A dynamic downscaled projection dataset, provided by Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) has been further downscaled to 5-km grids and bias-corrected with a quantile mapping method, is used to simulate the water level of Kao-Ping River in the future. Our results highlighted that the overtopping risk of Kao-Ping River increased by a factor of 5.7 similar to 8.0 by the end of the 21st century.

引用

页数：12

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