Exploring Malaysia's Transformation to Net Oil Importer and Oil Import Dependence

Within ASEAN, Malaysia is a major oil-exporting country; however, it is expected to become a net oil-importing country in the near future. This issue brings concerns over Malaysia's energy security, particularly on the aspect of oil import dependency. This is because its transportation and industrial sectors are still heavily dependent on oil products. By simulating dynamic interplays between developments in Malaysia's oil sector and its economy sectors, this study explores the possible years of the transformation and the extent to which it will be dependent on oil import. Four scenarios related to enhanced oil recovery, exploration and production investment, subsidy elimination and technology advances are considered for the simulation. In isolation, the subsidy elimination scenario provides the best result. However, if all scenarios are considered simultaneously, an undesired effect emerges. The earliest that Malaysia is expected to become a net oil-importing country is 2012 and the latest is 2021. Malaysia's dependence on oil imports is expected to continue increasing. In all scenarios, the shares of oil import in the total supply rise to above 90% in 2030, with the highest share at 97%.