Climatic factors controlling reproduction and growth of Norway spruce in southern Norway

Time series of seed production and tree-ring width of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) in southern Norway were analysed for their relationship to various climatic factors occurring during "key" stages, which a priori might be expected to show a strong climate response. The following factors combined in a multiple linear regression model were found to predict seed production (based on withheld data points) with considerable accuracy, at high levels of statistical significance: June-July mean temperature and August lowest temperature in the previous year, late spring frost and June-July precipitation of the last 2 years, and January-February lowest temperature in the current year. Tree ring width was negatively correlated with the seed production index of the current year and the lowest July temperature in the previous year and positively correlated with June-July precipitation in the current year. It is suggested that habitat constraints for seedling establishment should also be considered in a more general life-history cost theory to explain masting behaviour in forest trees.