Crop modelling: towards locally relevant and climate-informed adaptation

被引:28
|
作者
Beveridge, Louise [1 ,2 ]
Whitfield, Stephen [1 ]
Challinor, Andy [2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Leeds, Sustainabil Res Inst, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
[2] Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY; FARMING SYSTEMS; FARMERS; ENVIRONMENT; MAIZE; RISKS; UNCERTAINTIES; VARIABILITY; RESILIENCE; KNOWLEDGE;
D O I
10.1007/s10584-018-2160-z
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
A gap between the potential and practical realisation of adaptation exists: adaptation strategies need to be both climate-informed and locally relevant to be viable. Place-based approaches study local and contemporary dynamics of the agricultural system, whereas climate impact modelling simulates climate-crop interactions across temporal and spatial scales. Crop-climate modelling and place-based research on adaptation were strategically reviewed and analysed to identify areas of commonality, differences, and potential learning opportunities to enhance the relevance of both disciplines through interdisciplinary approaches. Crop-modelling studies have projected a 7-15% mean yield change with adaptation compared to a non-adaptation baseline (Nature Climate Change 4:1-5, 2014). Of the 17 types of adaptation strategy identified in this study as place-based adaptations occurring within Central America, only five were represented in crop-climate modelling literature, and these were as follows: fertiliser, irrigation, change in planting date, change in cultivar and area cultivated. The breath and agency of real-life adaptation compared to its representation in modelling studies is a source of error in climate impact simulations. Conversely, adaptation research that omits assessment of future climate variability and impact does not enable to provide sustainable adaptation strategies to local communities so risk maladaptation. Integrated and participatory methods can identify and reduce these sources of uncertainty, for example, stakeholder's engagement can identify locally relevant adaptation pathways. We propose a research agenda that uses methodological approaches from both the modelling and place-based approaches to work towards climate-informed locally relevant adaptation.
引用
收藏
页码:475 / 489
页数:15
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] Time-varying Intensity-Duration-Frequency relationship through climate-informed covariates
    Vinnarasi, R.
    Dhanya, C. T.
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2022, 604
  • [42] Climate change adaptation strategies: a prospect toward crop modelling and food security management
    Islam, Raihanul
    Islam, Md. Mazharul
    Islam, Md. Nazrul
    Islam, M. Nazrul
    Sen, Sukanta
    Faisal, Reasat Kamal
    MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT, 2020, 6 (02) : 769 - 777
  • [43] Assessment of population genetics and climatic variability can refine climate-informed seed transfer guidelines
    Massatti, Rob
    Shriver, Robert K.
    Winkler, Daniel E.
    Richardson, Bryce A.
    Bradford, John B.
    RESTORATION ECOLOGY, 2020, 28 (03) : 485 - 493
  • [44] A focus group study of ethical issues during climate-informed health decision-making
    Hantel, Andrew
    Senay, Emily
    Richie, Cristina
    Revette, Anna
    Nava-Coulter, Brett
    Hlubocky, Fay J.
    Walsh, Thomas P.
    Siegler, Mark
    Abel, Gregory A.
    NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE, 2024, 14 (10) : 1040 - 1046
  • [45] Epigenetics for crop adaptation to climate change
    Brunel-Muguet, Sophie
    Vetukuri, Ramesh R.
    Testillano, Pilar S.
    PHYSIOLOGIA PLANTARUM, 2022, 174 (06)
  • [46] Optimizing Sericea Lespedeza Fodder Production in the Southeastern US: A Climate-Informed Geospatial Engineering Approach
    Panda, Sudhanshu S.
    Terrill, Thomas H.
    Mahapatra, Ajit K.
    Morgan, Eric R.
    Siddique, Aftab
    Pech-Cervantes, Andres A.
    van Wyk, Jan A.
    AGRICULTURE-BASEL, 2023, 13 (09):
  • [47] Tensions in talking about disasters: Habitual versus climate-informed - The case of bushfire vocabulary in Australia
    Bromhead, Helen
    AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF LINGUISTICS, 2022, 42 (3-4) : 207 - 225
  • [48] Climate-informed monthly runoff prediction model using machine learning and feature importance analysis
    Yan, Lei
    Lei, Qingwen
    Jiang, Cong
    Yan, Pengtao
    Ren, Zheng
    Liu, Bin
    Liu, Zhangjun
    FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE, 2022, 10
  • [49] Climate-informed stochastic hydrological modeling: Incorporating decadal-scale variability using paleo data
    Henley, Benjamin J.
    Thyer, Mark A.
    Kuczera, George
    Franks, Stewart W.
    WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2011, 47
  • [50] Climate-informed models benefit hindcasting but present challenges when forecasting species-habitat associations
    Barnes, Cheryl L.
    Essington, Timothy E.
    Pirtle, Jodi L.
    Rooper, Christopher N.
    Laman, Edward A.
    Holsman, Kirstin K.
    Aydin, Kerim Y.
    Thorson, James T.
    ECOGRAPHY, 2022, 2022 (10)