Early Prediction of the Outcome Using Tumor Markers and mRECIST in Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients Who Underwent Transarterial chemoembolization

Objective: We examined early predictors of the outcome in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE). Methods: We analyzed 116 patients with unresectable HCC treated with initial TACE. alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) or des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) response was assessed in patients who had baseline AFP levels >= 200 ng/ml or DCP >= 60 mAU/ml; a positive response was defined as a reduction of >50% compared to baseline 1 month after TACE. Results: A baseline AFP level.200 ng/ml was associated with a poor overall survival (OS) (29.4 vs. 6.1 months; p <0.0001). AFP response had no significantly prognostic effects on the OS. Conversely, although the baseline DCP did not influence the OS, DCP responders showed a significantly better OS than nonresponders (67.0 vs. 19.8 months, p = 0.020). The baseline AFP (p = 0.004) and initial tumor response evaluated by the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) (p = 0.012) were found to be independent predictors of the OS. The combination of the baseline AFP and initial assessment by mRECIST allowed stratification of the OS. Conclusions: The combination of the baseline AFP level and mRECIST is useful for the early prediction of the OS in HCC patients who underwent TACE. (C) 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.