Is it the weather? Response

被引:28
作者
Jacobsen, Ben [2 ]
Marquering, Wessel [1 ]
机构
[1] RSM Erasmus Univ, Rotterdam, Netherlands
[2] Massey Univ, Auckland, New Zealand
关键词
Stock market seasonality; Sell in May; Seasonal affective disorder; Spurious correlations; LOSING SLEEP; MARKET; CYCLE; SELL;
D O I
10.1016/j.jbankfin.2008.09.011
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Kamstra, Kramer and Levi (KKL) in their comment seem to miss the main point Of Our paper. Many things are correlated with the seasons so it is difficult to distinguish between them when we try to explain the well-known summer winter pattern in stock returns. Finding an isolated seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect without proper control variables does not disprove our point but strengthens it. To sidestep all of the issues they raise and take our point to the extreme, we show using plain vanilla regressions that the seasonal stock market pattern they attribute to SAD can also be "explained" by variables like ice cream consumption or airline travel. The new variations of SAD variables ("onset" and "incidence") KKL propose in their recent work for North America are even more problematic than the original SAD variables. We find that these new SAD proxies are not significant in countries where according to KKL they should be: Canada and the United States. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:583 / 587
页数:5
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