Farm Level Supply of Short Rotation Woody Crops: Economic Assessment in the Long-Term for Household Farming Systems

In this paper, we propose an analysis and modeling of farmers decision to convert a part of their annual crops area into woody crops: short rotation coppices (SRCs). Different criteriatechnical, economic, and financialare highlighted in the farmers decision to adopt this production. A farm-level model is proposed and incorporates these decision criteria. The objective is to test several incentive scenarios to encourage risk-averse cereal farmers to plant trees. A multiperiod model of investment is built and tests possible adoption by farmers based on financial and structural parameters and according to the outlook of agricultural markets. The simulations show that if the cash crop prices fluctuate in the future and if farmers are risk averse the strategy of on-farm diversification toward woody crops under contractual arrangements could be relevant for farmers to mitigate the risks in the long run. Cet article presente une analyse et une modelisation de la decision dun agriculteur cerealier qui souhaite convertir une partie de sa surface en grande culture en Taillis a Courte Rotation (TCR). Un modele multi-periodique dinvestissement est construit et incorpore differents criteres techniques, economiques et financiers qui entrent dans la decision dadopter ces nouvelles cultures perennes. Le modele permet de tester le role de differents types de soutiens, proposes aujourdhui dans le cadre de la Politique Agricole Commune europeenne, permettant dencourager les agriculteurs averses au risque a planter des arbres. Les simulations montrent que si les prix des grandes cultures annuelles fluctuent a lavenir, si la plantation darbres est soutenue et si les agriculteurs sont averses au risque, la strategie de se diversifier vers la plantation darbres a croissance rapide, sous contrat, peut permettre dattenuer le risque a long terme.