Manmade Vulnerability of the Cancun Beach System: The Case of Hurricane Wilma

Climate change and resultant coastal erosion and flooding have been the focus of many recent analyses. Often these studies overlook the effects of manmade modifications to the coastline which have reduced its resilience to storm events. In this investigation, we integrate previous reports, historical photo analysis, field work, and the application of numerical models to better understand the effects of Wilma, the most destructive hurricane to affect Cancun, Mexico. Huge waves (of significant height, >12 m), long mean wave periods (>12 s), devastating winds (>250 km/h), and powerful currents (>2 m/s) removed >7 million cubic meters of sand from the Cancun beach system, leaving 68% of the sub-aerial beach as bedrock, and the rest considerably eroded. Numerical simulations show that the modifications to the barrier island imposed by tourist infrastructure have considerably increased the rigidity of the system, increasing the potential erosion of the beach under extreme conditions. If there were no structural barriers, a series of breaches could occur along the beach, allowing exchange of water and alleviating storm surge on other sections of the beach. If the effects caused by anthropogenic changes to Cancun are ignored, the analysis is inaccurate and misleading.