Linear Regression Models to Forecast Electricity Consumption in Italy

The influence of economic and demographic variables on the annual electricity consumption in Italy has been investigated in order to develop a simple and data light electricity consumption forecasting model, to be used as part of more complex planning tools. The time period considered for the historical data is from 1970-2007. Multiple and single regression models are developed using historical electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, and population. Annual electricity consumption was strongly related to the selected variables, with adjusted regression coefficients, adj. R-2, equal to 0.990 for residential consumption, 0.961 for non-residential consumption, and 0.981 for total consumption. Comparisons with national forecasts showed that the developed regressions are congruent with the official projections, with +/- 5% error considered acceptable in relation to the considered time span.