Modeling the Effects of Meteorological Factors and Unreported Cases on Seasonal Influenza Outbreaks in Gansu Province, China

被引:26
|
作者
Jing, Shuang-Lin [1 ]
Huo, Hai-Feng [1 ]
Xiang, Hong [1 ]
机构
[1] Lanzhou Univ Technol, Dept Appl Math, Lanzhou 730050, Gansu, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Influenza; Meteorological factor; Unreported cases; Mathematical model; Parameter estimation; CONTAMINATED ENVIRONMENTS; HFMD INFECTIONS; EPIDEMIC MODELS; DYNAMICS; HUMIDITY; VIRUS; TEMPERATURE; COLD; SURVIVAL; SYSTEMS;
D O I
10.1007/s11538-020-00747-6
中图分类号
Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Influenza usually breaks out seasonally in temperate regions, especially in winter, infection rates and mortality rates of influenza increase significantly, which means that dry air and cold temperatures accelerate the spread of influenza viruses. However, the meteorological factors that lead to seasonal influenza outbreaks and how these meteorological factors play a decisive role in influenza transmission remain unclear. During the epidemic of infectious diseases, the neglect of unreported cases leads to an underestimation of infection rates and basic reproduction number. In this paper, we propose a new non-autonomous periodic differential equation model with meteorological factors including unreported cases. First, the basic reproduction number is obtained and the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free periodic solution is proved. Furthermore, the existence of periodic solutions and the uniformly persistence of the model are demonstrated. Second, the best-fit parameter values in our model are identified by the MCMC algorithm on the basis of the influenza data in Gansu province, China. We also estimate that the basic reproduction number is 1.2288 (95% CI:(1.2287, 1.2289)). Then, to determine the key parameters of the model, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are explored. Finally, our results show that influenza is more likely to spread in low temperature, low humidity and low precipitation environments. Temperature is a more important factor than relative humidity and precipitation during the influenza epidemic. In addition, our results also show that there are far more unreported cases than reported cases.
引用
收藏
页数:36
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] Seroprevalence and risk factors of Toxoplasma gondii in Tibetan Sheep in Gansu province, Northwestern China
    Yin, Ming-Yang
    Wang, Jin-Lei
    Huang, Si-Yang
    Qin, Si-Yuan
    Zhou, Dong-Hui
    Liu, Guang-Xue
    Tan, Qi-Dong
    Zhu, Xing-Quan
    BMC VETERINARY RESEARCH, 2015, 11
  • [42] Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype
    Ze-Lin Yan
    Wen-Hui Liu
    Yu-Xiang Long
    Bo-Wen Ming
    Zhou Yang
    Peng-Zhe Qin
    Chun-Quan Ou
    Li Li
    BMC Public Health, 24
  • [43] Effects of meteorological factors on influenza transmissibility by virus type/subtype
    Yan, Ze-Lin
    Liu, Wen-Hui
    Long, Yu-Xiang
    Ming, Bo-Wen
    Yang, Zhou
    Qin, Peng-Zhe
    Ou, Chun-Quan
    Li, Li
    BMC PUBLIC HEALTH, 2024, 24 (01)
  • [44] Effects of extreme meteorological factors on daily mumps cases in Hefei, China, during 2011–2016
    Huabing Wu
    Enqing You
    Chunxiao Jiang
    Yuwei Yang
    Ling Wang
    Qingshan Niu
    Xuelei Lu
    Fen Huang
    Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2020, 27 : 4489 - 4501
  • [45] Effects of baloxavir and oseltamivir antiviral therapy on the transmission of seasonal influenza in China: A mathematical modeling analysis
    Jiang, Yawen
    Lin, Yi-Fan
    Shi, Si
    Chen, Daqin
    Shu, Yuelong
    JOURNAL OF MEDICAL VIROLOGY, 2022, 94 (11) : 5425 - 5433
  • [46] Seasonal pattern of influenza and the association with meteorological factors based on wavelet analysis in jinan City, Eastern China, 2013-2016
    Su, Wei
    Liu, Ti
    Geng, Xingyi
    Yang, Guoliang
    PEERJ, 2020, 8
  • [47] A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO-BEHAVIORAL FACTORS
    周智翔
    JournalofTropicalMeteorology, 2009, 15 (01) : 1 - 12
  • [48] A SEASONAL INFLUENZA THEORY AND MATHEMATICAL MODEL INCORPORATING METEOROLOGICAL AND SOCIO-BEHAVIORAL FACTORS
    Zhou, Steven Zhixiang
    JOURNAL OF TROPICAL METEOROLOGY, 2009, 15 (01) : 1 - 12
  • [49] Effects of vegetation on debris flow mitigation: A case study from Gansu province, China
    Wang, Siyuan
    Meng, Xingmin
    Chen, Guan
    Guo, Peng
    Xiong, Muqi
    Zeng, Runqiang
    GEOMORPHOLOGY, 2017, 282 : 64 - 73
  • [50] Extreme meteorological disaster effects on grain production in Jilin Province,China
    XU Lei
    ZHANG Qiao
    ZHANG Jing
    ZHAO Liang
    SUN Wei
    JIN Yun-xiang
    Journal of Integrative Agriculture, 2017, 16 (02) : 486 - 496