Thyroid Dose Estimates for a Cohort of Belarusian Children Exposed to 131I from the Chernobyl Accident: Assessment of Uncertainties

被引：33

作者：

Drozdovitch, Vladimir ^{[1
]}

Minenko, Victor ^{[2
]}

Golovanov, Ivan ^{[3
]}

Khrutchinsky, Arkady ^{[2
]}

Kukhta, Tatiana ^{[4
]}

Kutsen, Semion ^{[2
]}

Luckyanov, Nickolas ^{[1
]}

Ostroumova, Evgenia ^{[1
]}

Trofimik, Sergey ^{[2
]}

Voilleque, Paul ^{[5
]}

Simon, Steven L. ^{[1
]}

Bouville, Andre ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] NCI, Div Canc Epidemiol & Genet, NIH, DHHS, Bethesda, MD 20892 USA

[2] Res Inst Nucl Problems, Minsk, BELARUS

[3] Burnasyan Fed Med Biophys Ctr, Moscow, Russia

[4] United Inst Informat Problems, Minsk, BELARUS

[5] MJP Risk Assessment Inc, Denver, CO USA

来源：

RADIATION RESEARCH | 2015年 / 184卷 / 02期

基金：

美国国家卫生研究院;

关键词：

MONTE-CARLO; RADIATION; CANCER; RECONSTRUCTION; POPULATION; REANALYSIS; DOSIMETRY; DISEASE; FALLOUT; GOITER;

D O I：

10.1667/RR13791.1

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Deterministic thyroid radiation doses due to iodine-131 (I-131) intake were reconstructed in a previous article for 11,732 participants of the Belarusian-American cohort study of thyroid cancer and other thyroid diseases in individuals exposed during childhood or adolescence to fallout from the Chernobyl accident. The current article describes an assessment of uncertainties in reconstructed thyroid doses that accounts for the shared and unshared errors. Using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure, 1,000 sets of cohort thyroid doses due to I-131 intake were calculated. The arithmetic mean of the stochastic thyroid doses for the entire cohort was 0.68 Gy. For two-thirds of the cohort the arithmetic mean of individual stochastic thyroid doses was less than 0.5 Gy. The geometric standard deviation of stochastic doses varied among cohort members from 1.33 to 5.12 with an arithmetic mean of 1.76 and a geometric mean of 1.73. The uncertainties in thyroid dose were driven by the unshared errors associated with the estimates of values of thyroid mass and of the I-131 activity in the thyroid of the subject; the contribution of shared errors to the overall uncertainty was small. These multiple sets of cohort thyroid doses will be used to evaluate the radiation risks of thyroid cancer and noncancer thyroid diseases, taking into account the structure of the errors in the dose estimates. (C) 2015 by Radiation Research Society

引用

页码：203 / 218

页数：16

共 31 条

[31] Individual thyroid dose estimates for a case-control study of Chernobyl-related thyroid cancer among children of Belarus -: Part II.: Contributions from long-lived radionuclides and external radiation
Minenko, VF
Ulanovsky, AV
Drozdovitch, VV
Shemiakina, EV
Gavrilin, YI
Khrouch, VT
Shinkarev, SM
Voillequé, PG
Bouville, A
Anspaugh, LR
Luckyanov, N
HEALTH PHYSICS, 2006, 90 (04): : 312 - 327

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