Magnitude, demographics and dynamics of the effect of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in 21 industrialized countries

被引:285
作者
Kontis, Vasilis [1 ]
Bennett, James E. [1 ]
Rashid, Theo [1 ]
Parks, Robbie M. [2 ,3 ]
Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan [1 ]
Guillot, Michel [4 ,5 ]
Asaria, Perviz [1 ]
Zhou, Bin [1 ]
Battaglini, Marco [6 ]
Corsetti, Gianni [6 ]
McKee, Martin [7 ]
Di Cesare, Mariachiara [1 ,8 ]
Mathers, Colin D.
Ezzati, Majid [1 ,9 ,10 ]
机构
[1] Imperial Coll London, Sch Publ Hlth, MRC Ctr Environm & Hlth, London, England
[2] Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, New York, NY USA
[3] Columbia Univ, Mailman Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Environm Hlth Sci, New York, NY USA
[4] French Inst Demog Studies INED, Paris, France
[5] Univ Penn, Dept Sociol, Populat Studies Ctr, Philadelphia, PA 19104 USA
[6] Italian Natl Inst Stat Istat, Directorate Social Stat & Populat Census, Rome, Italy
[7] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Hlth Serv Res & Policy, London, England
[8] Middlesex Univ London, Dept Nat Sci, London, England
[9] Imperial Coll London, Abdul Latif Jameel Inst Dis & Emergency Analyt, London, England
[10] Univ Ghana, Reg Inst Populat Studies, Legon, Ghana
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
AMBIENT-TEMPERATURE; DEATHS; EUROPE; IMPACT; WINTER;
D O I
10.1038/s41591-020-1112-0
中图分类号
Q5 [生物化学]; Q7 [分子生物学];
学科分类号
071010 ; 081704 ;
摘要
The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has changed many social, economic, environmental and healthcare determinants of health. We applied an ensemble of 16 Bayesian models to vital statistics data to estimate the all-cause mortality effect of the pandemic for 21 industrialized countries. From mid-February through May 2020, 206,000 (95% credible interval, 178,100-231,000) more people died in these countries than would have had the pandemic not occurred. The number of excess deaths, excess deaths per 100,000 people and relative increase in deaths were similar between men and women in most countries. England and Wales and Spain experienced the largest effect: similar to 100 excess deaths per 100,000 people, equivalent to a 37% (30-44%) relative increase in England and Wales and 38% (31-45%) in Spain. Bulgaria, New Zealand, Slovakia, Australia, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Norway, Denmark and Finland experienced mortality changes that ranged from possible small declines to increases of 5% or less in either sex. The heterogeneous mortality effects of the COVID-19 pandemic reflect differences in how well countries have managed the pandemic and the resilience and preparedness of the health and social care system.
引用
收藏
页码:1919 / 1928
页数:29
相关论文
共 70 条
  • [1] Baker MG, 2020, NEW ZEAL MED J, V133, P10
  • [2] Relation between elevated ambient temperature and mortality: A review of the epidemiologic evidence
    Basu, R
    Samet, JM
    [J]. EPIDEMIOLOGIC REVIEWS, 2002, 24 (02) : 190 - 202
  • [3] High ambient temperature and mortality: a review of epidemiologic studies from 2001 to 2008
    Basu, Rupa
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH, 2009, 8
  • [4] Bennett JE, 2014, NAT CLIM CHANGE, V4, P269, DOI [10.1038/nclimate2123, 10.1038/NCLIMATE2123]
  • [5] Berlin I., 1953, HEDGEHOG FOX ESSAY T
  • [6] Bernstein L, 2020, WASHINGTON POST
  • [7] Sex differential in COVID-19 mortality varies markedly by age
    Bhopal, Sunil S.
    Bhopal, Raj
    [J]. LANCET, 2020, 396 (10250) : 532 - 533
  • [8] Cities - try to predict superspreading hotspots for COVID-19
    Bouffanais, Roland
    Lim, Sun Sun
    [J]. NATURE, 2020, 583 (7816) : 352 - 355
  • [9] Briggs A., 2020, NHS TEST TRACE JOURN
  • [10] Campbell A, 2020, DEATHS REG WEEKL ENG