CO2 emissions from electricity generation in ASEAN: An empirical spatial-temporal index decomposition analysis

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a developing region that is poised to be one of the key contributors to rising CO2 emissions in the future. In particular, the electricity sector's emissions have risen by 2.4 times since 2000 and may increase by another 2.6 times by 2040, motivated by the burgeoning regional energy demand. If realised, this growth in CO2 emissions could stall global climate mitigation and sustainability efforts. The electricity sector, however, has a large potential for decarbonization. To reveal the driving factors of historical trends, spatial-temporal index decomposition analyses (ST-IDA) based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) is applied to analyse ASEAN's aggregate carbon intensity (ACI) of electricity from 2000 to 2015. The technique combines temporal and spatial data to reveal the factors influencing regional trends and allow for comparisons across countries. The results show that in the face of rapidly rising electricity demands, many ASEAN countries have failed to maintain consistent improvements in the ACI through the adoption of renewable energy or improvement in generation mix. While some countries have switched to cleaner forms of generation such as natural gas, varying energy resource endowments, national circumstances and energy demand trends are challenges to the adoption of renewable energy. Pressures from energy demand and technological challenges also prevent some countries from sustaining overall improvements in generation efficiencies of fossil fuel plants. Improving energy planning, demand management and greater regional cooperation are key to the decarbonisation of the electricity system.