Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted

被引:384
作者
Mordecai, Erin A. [1 ]
Paaijmans, Krijn P. [2 ]
Johnson, Leah R. [3 ]
Balzer, Christian [1 ]
Ben-Horin, Tal [4 ]
Moor, Emilyde [5 ]
McNally, Amy [5 ]
Pawar, Samraat [6 ]
Ryan, Sadie J. [7 ,8 ]
Smith, Thomas C. [1 ]
Lafferty, Kevin D. [1 ,9 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Ecol Evolut & Marine Biol Dept, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[2] Penn State Univ, Dept Entomol, Ctr Infect Dis Dynam, Merkle Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA
[3] Univ Chicago, Dept Ecol & Evolut, Chicago, IL 60637 USA
[4] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Bren Sch Environm Sci & Management, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[5] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
[6] Univ Calif Los Angeles, David Geffen Sch Med, Dept Biomath, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA
[7] SUNY Syracuse, Coll Environm Sci & Forestry, Dept Environm & Forest Biol, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA
[8] SUNY Syracuse, Coll Environm Sci & Forestry, Div Environm Sci, Syracuse, NY 13210 USA
[9] Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Inst Marine Sci, US Geol Survey, Western Ecol Res Ctr, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Anopheles; climate change; disease ecology; malaria; Plasmodium falciparum; temperature; GAMBIAE-SENSU-STRICTO; CLIMATE-CHANGE; PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM; GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION; DEPENDENCE; MODEL; RISK; POPULATION; TOLERANCE; SURVIVAL;
D O I
10.1111/ele.12015
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
The ecology of mosquito vectors and malaria parasites affect the incidence, seasonal transmission and geographical range of malaria. Most malaria models to date assume constant or linear responses of mosquito and parasite life-history traits to temperature, predicting optimal transmission at 31 degrees C. These models are at odds with field observations of transmission dating back nearly a century. We build a model with more realistic ecological assumptions about the thermal physiology of insects. Our model, which includes empirically derived nonlinear thermal responses, predicts optimal malaria transmission at 25 degrees C (6 degrees C lower than previous models). Moreover, the model predicts that transmission decreases dramatically at temperatures > 28 degrees C, altering predictions about how climate change will affect malaria. A large data set on malaria transmission risk in Africa validates both the 25 degrees C optimum and the decline above 28 degrees C. Using these more accurate nonlinear thermal-response models will aid in understanding the effects of current and future temperature regimes on disease transmission.
引用
收藏
页码:22 / 30
页数:9
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