The Impact of Climate Change on Rainfall Frequency in Taiwan

被引：22

作者：

Huang, Wen-Cheng ^{[1
]}

Chiang, Yun ^{[1
]}

Wu, Ruo-Ying ^{[1
]}

Lee, Jyun-Long ^{[1
]}

Lin, Shu-Hua ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Natl Taiwan Ocean Univ, Dept Harbor & River Engn, Keelung, Taiwan

[2] APEC Res Ctr Typhoon & Soc, Taipei, Taiwan

来源：

TERRESTRIAL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC SCIENCES | 2012年 / 23卷 / 05期

关键词：

Climate change; Rainfall frequency; GCM; WATER-RESOURCES;

D O I：

10.3319/TAO.2012.05.03.04(WMH)

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The purpose of this research is to assess climate change impacts on rainfall frequency in Taiwan. The changes in future precipitation were projected statistically from general circulation model (GCM) outputs. Based on five downscaled GCM outputs [China's FGOALS-g1.0, Japan's CGCM2.3.2, the USA's CM2.0, Canada's CGCM3(T47), and France's CM3] under the SRES A1B scenario, the frequency of the maximum consecutive dry days and maximum 1-, 2-, and 3-day rainfall during 2080 - 2099 are evaluated and compared with those in the period of 1980 - 1999. The results show that by the end of the 21st century, the risk of droughts and floods over Taiwan has a tendency to increase. The distribution of water resources in Taiwan will be more uneven, with a noticeable change in the ratio of wet and dry seasons. Due to these climate change impacts, future water conservation work will be a major challenge for governments.

引用

页码：553 / 564

页数：12

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