Spatial impact of automated driving in urban areas

Urban form develops in close feedback with different modes of transportation. The introduction and adoption of automated vehicles (AVs) are expected to have an impact on the development of cities as well, as the use of AVs may, for example, lead to more efficient road use and less need for parking spaces. In order to study those impacts, we developed a geospatially disaggregated system dynamics (SD) model, through the use of subscripts, of the Copenhagen metropolitan region. We used this SD model to explore the consequences of 12 main uncertainties related to the introduction of AVs on urban development and develop future scenarios following the exploratory modelling and analysis methodology. Our analysis led to two distinct scenarios. In one scenario, AVs lead to more vehicle use, which leads to more urban sprawl and more congestion as a consequence. In the other scenario, more shared use of cars leads to less traffic and more open space in the city.