An integrated and transferable climate change vulnerability assessment for regional application

被引:21
作者
Holsten, Anne [1 ]
Kropp, Juergen P. [1 ]
机构
[1] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, RD Climate Impacts & Vulnerabil 2, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
关键词
Impact assessment; Global warming; Extreme event; WATER-LEVEL FLUCTUATIONS; ADAPTIVE CAPACITY; UNCERTAINTY; DIVERSITY; IMPACTS; ENGLISH; SCIENCE; GERMANY; LAKES; LAND;
D O I
10.1007/s11069-012-0147-z
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
While sectoral vulnerability assessments have become common usage in the climate change field, integrated and transferable approaches are still rare. However, comprehensive knowledge is demanded to concretize and prioritize adaptation strategies, which are currently being drafted at national and state levels. We present a multisectoral analysis where sensitivity is quantified by the physical, social, environmental and economic dimension by means of tailor-made approaches for specific sectors. These are directly related to relevant exposure variables defined as relative climatic changes until the end of this century. Aggregation of the sector-specific impacts, comprising both sensitivity and exposure, leads to integrated impact measures. These are then combined with the generic adaptive capacity. We exemplify our methodology for municipalities in the German state North Rhine-Westphalia for two regional climate models. Our approach allows for the integrated assessment, while at the same time enabling a sector-specific perspective. However, various limitations remain, especially regarding the aggregation across sectors. We emphasize the need to consider the aim and methodological advantages and disadvantages before applying any vulnerability assessment.
引用
收藏
页码:1977 / 1999
页数:23
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