Investment projects in agribusiness: cost-volume-profit analysis considering uncertainty and risk

Evaluations of projects in the agribusiness sector make use of discounted cash flows may consider the risk discount rate for cash flows. However, these studies assume simplifying assumptions in relations Cost-Volume-Profit (CVP). Thus, this research aims to advance the treatment stochastic, as it believes that analysis of the CVP in its traditional model, represents a decision tool, consecrated, but the usefulness of this tool is limited by the deterministic nature that the relationship takes, proposing further research on the effects of the merger scenarios or probability distributions in the analyzes CVP aimed at agribusiness project evaluations under conditions of uncertainty and risk. To achieve this goal we conducted a simulation from real data, allowing a reflection on the limitations of traditional CVP analysis, supported by a number of simplifying assumptions, in particular: assumptions of linearity and low applicability in conditions of risk and uncertainty. The results showed that the analysis can be extended CVP and adapted to the reality experienced by managers, considering the existence of multi-product and the presence of uncertainty, or generation of random numbers by simulation frequencies and to infer probabilities.