Essence of backcasting

Sustainable development is a highly complex problem area, which will probably call for major changes of industrialized societies in the long run. How could futures studies contribute to a policy forming process directed to these problems? And what kind of knowledge about the future is most needed? It is argued that a backcasting approach, due to its problem-solving character, is well suited to these kinds of long-term problems. Fundamental theoretical assumptions behind backcasting are traced. One conclusion is that the merits of backcasting should be judged in the context of discovery rather than in the context of justification. Also, if one is inclined to see teleology as a specific form of understanding, beside causality, then backcasting becomes interesting. Backcasting studies typically aim at providing policy makers and an interested general public with images of the future as a background for opinion forming and decisions. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd