An earned value model with risk analysis for project management under uncertain conditions

Earned value is a renowned project management technique that integrates the information on cost and schedule of projects to evaluate their current status. Despite the ability of earned value management (EVM) to measure and control the current status, it is not able to estimate the projects' future performances because EVM does not consider the changes in environmental circumstances or other elements that could influence on the future performance of the project. In the contrary with EVM, the risk analysis technique regards risky conditions for the future performance of the project by recognizing and analyzing the opportunities and threats. In this paper, a new evaluation model of the EVM blended with the risk analysis is presented to improve the project future performance forecasting. In addition, these indices and evaluations are defined under real-life uncertain conditions using linguistic variables represented by interval-valued triangular fuzzy numbers. Finally, a case study from the recent literature for construction industry is given in this paper to show the effectiveness of the proposed EVM model under uncertain conditions.