Decisions, large-scale technology and managing incrementally

The ongoing attraction of major and often disastrous decisions concerning 'big' technology means that an elucidation of the processes by which such decisions emerge, and the characteristics which make their subsequent control difficult, remains necessary. Two key aspects of decision-making are addressed within the paper and are illustrated with reference to a range of studies of decision-making involving large-scale technology conducted by the author and others (the Channel Tunnel, and North Sea Oil exploration, for example). The first aspect refers to the content of decisions and how large-scale decisions inhibit low -cost trial-and-error forms of incremental decision-making and thus the easy incorporation of new information into modified or reversed decisions. The second aspect addresses the complex of political and organisational factors which combine to produce such decisions, or impact upon the pace and progress of their implementation. The discussion considers how more incremental, flexible alternative decision options are available but marginalised in such cases which serve to provide tests of the incremental prescription. The conclusion summarises the main arguments of the paper in terms of the continued relevance of an incremental approach to decision-making under uncertainty.