Unravelling net primary productivity dynamics under urbanization and climate change in the western Himalaya

Over the past few decades, climate change and urban expansion have strongly affected vegetation dynamics and overall carbon sink capacity of Himalayan ecosystem. However, the contribution of these two key factors on varying spatio-temporal scales in Himalayan landscapes still lacks in profound analyses. The present study takes Dharamsala and Pithoragarh urban landscapes as examples and uses the Enhanced Spatial and Temporal Adaptive Reflectance Fusion Model (ESTARFM) as the image fusion technique to generate highly resolved, both spatially (30 m) and temporally (monthly), NDVI images. These are used as inputs for Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) model for Net Primary Productivity (NPP) estimation over the past two decades (2000-2020). During the study period, the NPP loss due to urbanization was 2065.43 kg C in Dharamsala and 401.07 kg C in Pithoragarh. Climate change, measured in terms of interseasonal changes in temperature, rainfall and solar radiation, had considerably contributed to the NPP variations of vegetated areas in both the study sites, however its contribution ratio was relatively lower than residual factors. There was a significant distribution gradient between how and where urban expansion and climate change influenced the NPP. Urban expansion impacts NPP more in plain areas corresponding to new urban land developments while climate change impacts NPP in high elevation mountainous regions dominated by Oak species. The observed declining trend of NPP under the current threat of urban expansion and climate change in the Himalaya highlights and invites the need of attributing importance to ecological issues. The findings of our study encompassing complex Himalayan landscapes could offer scientific perspectives for the management of ecological environment of highly fragile and vulnerable landscapes of the Himalaya.