DYNAMICS OF THE AH1N1/09 PANDEMIC VIRUS IN THE VENEZUELAN POPULATION

被引：0

作者：

Gonzalez-Parra, Gilberto ^{[1
]}

Villanueva, Rafael J.

Segovia, Lupe ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] ULA, Fac Ingn, Dept Calculo, GMM, Merida, Venezuela

[2] ULA, Fac Med, Merida, Venezuela

[3] Coordinac Epidemiol Corp Salud, Merida, Venezuela

来源：

INTERCIENCIA | 2012年 / 37卷 / 04期

关键词：

INFLUENZA; TRANSMISSION; H1N1; RSV;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

The dynamics of the prevalence of the pandemic virus AH1N1/09 in Venezuela, between May and December 2009, is of interest and not easily predictable. The dynamics at the population level of the AH1N1/09 virus and their main issues are presented in order to construct models that can predict or reproduce the dynamics of AH1N1/09 virus in the Venezuelan population. These models are important since despite the control of sanitary measures, an important amount of persons are hospitalized and some of them die. Time series of confirmed virus AH1N1/09 cases are used. The results suggest that the main classical epidemic mathematical models such as the SI, SIR and SEIR cannot predict in straightforward way the different dynamics of the AH1N1/09 in several regions of Venezuela.

引用

页码：306 / 311

页数：6

共 21 条

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