Can co-seismic landslide susceptibility predict subsequent landslides after major earthquake?

It was observed that a large number of landslides continued to occur in the years following the Wenchuan earthquake. This paper investigates the dynamic patterns of landslides in Pingwu County, Sichuan Province through the interpretation of high-resolution satellite images in 2008, 2011, and 2013, and explores the relationship between the distribution of evolving landslides and their original susceptibility right after Wenchuan earthquake. A landslide susceptibility model was built based on environmental variables and calculated Newmark displacement by using random forest algorithm. The results show that the susceptibility model provides accurate landslide prediction not only for co-seismic landslides but also for landslides occurred a few years later. The non-landslide areas still are more likely to evolve into landslide hazard areas given some disturbances such as severe precipitation and aftershocks in the following years after major earthquake.