Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection

被引：47

作者：

Yasuda, Tomohiro ^{[1
]}

Nakajo, Sota ^{[2
]}

Kim, SooYoul ^{[3
]}

Mase, Hajime ^{[1
]}

Mori, Nobuhito ^{[1
]}

Horsburgh, Kevin ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Uji, Kyoto 6110011, Japan

[2] Kumamoto Univ, Fac Engn, Kumamoto 8608555, Japan

[3] Tottori Univ, Grad Sch Engn, Tottori 6808552, Japan

[4] Natl Oceanog Ctr, Liverpool L3 5DA, Merseyside, England

来源：

COASTAL ENGINEERING | 2014年 / 83卷

关键词：

Climate change; GCM; Tropical cyclone; Storm surge; Extreme value statistics; 3RD-GENERATION WAVE MODEL; PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME; TROPICAL CYCLONES; COASTAL REGIONS; VALIDATION; INTENSITY; CLOUDS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.coastaleng.2013.10.003

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：65 / 71

页数：7

共 31 条

[1] A third-generation wave model for coastal regions - 1. Model description and validation [J].

Booij, N ;

Ris, RC ;

Holthuijsen, LH .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 1999, 104 (C4) :7649-7666

[2]

CMIP3, 2007, COUPLED MODEL INTERC

[3]

CMIP5, 2011, COUPLED MODEL INTERC

[4] Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [J].

Emanuel, K .

NATURE, 2005, 436 (7051) :686-688

[5] A PLOTTING RULE FOR EXTREME PROBABILITY PAPER [J].

GRINGORTEN, II .

JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 1963, 68 (03) :813-+

[6]

Hashimoto N., 2004, P 29 INT C COAST ENG, V4, P3615

[7] Development and validation of a new land surface model for JMA's operational global model using the CEOP observation dataset [J].

Hirai, Masayuki ;

Sakashita, Takuya ;

Kitagawa, Hiroto ;

Tsuyuki, Tadashi ;

Hosaka, Masahiro ;

Oh'Izumi, Mitsuo .

JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN, 2007, 85A :1-24

[8] A PARAMETERIZATION SCHEME OF OROGRAPHIC GRAVITY-WAVE DRAG WITH 2 DIFFERENT VERTICAL PARTITIONINGS .1. IMPACTS ON MEDIUM-RANGE FORECASTS [J].

IWASAKI, T ;

YAMADA, S ;

TADA, K .

JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN, 1989, 67 (01) :11-27

[9]

Japan Meteorological Agency, 2007, OUTL OP NUM WEATH PR

[10]

KAKUSHIN, 2007, INN PROGR CLIM CHANG

← 1 2 3 4 →