SOURCE: A Registry-Based Prediction Model for Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Oesophageal or Gastric Cancer

被引：20

作者：

van den Boom, Hector G. ^{[1
]}

Abu-Hanna, Ameen ^{[2
]}

ter Veer, Emil ^{[1
]}

van Kleef, Jessy Joy ^{[1
]}

Lordick, Florian ^{[3
]}

Stahl, Michael ^{[4
]}

Ajani, Jaffer A. ^{[5
]}

Guimbaud, Rosine ^{[6
]}

Park, Se Hoon ^{[7
]}

Dutton, Susan J. ^{[8
,9
]}

Bang, Yung-Jue ^{[10
]}

Boku, Narikazu ^{[11
]}

Mohammad, Nadia Haj ^{[12
]}

Sprangers, Mirjam A. G. ^{[13
]}

Verhoeven, Rob H. A. ^{[14
,15
]}

Zwinderman, Aeilko H. ^{[16
]}

van Oijen, Martijn G. H. ^{[1
]}

van Laarhoven, Hanneke W. M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Canc Ctr Amsterdam, Dept Med Oncol, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

[2] Univ Amsterdam, Dept Med Informat, Amsterdam UMC, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

[3] Univ Hosp Leipzig, UCCL, Med Dept 1, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany

[4] Kliniken Essen Mitte, Dept Med Oncol & Hematol, D-45136 Essen, Germany

[5] Univ Texas MD Anderson Canc Ctr, Dept Gastrointestinal Med Oncol, Houston, TX 77030 USA

[6] CHU Toulouse, Dept Med Oncol, F-31400 Toulouse, France

[7] Univ Sch Med, Samsung Med Ctr, Seoul 06351, South Korea

[8] Univ Oxford, Oxford Clin Trials Res Unit, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[9] Univ Oxford, Ctr Stat Med, Oxford OX1 2JD, England

[10] Seoul Natl Univ, Seoul Natl Univ Hosp, Coll Med, Seoul 03080, South Korea

[11] Natl Canc Ctr, Dept Gastrointestinal, Med Oncol Div, Tokyo 1040045, Japan

[12] Univ Utrecht, UMC Utrecht, Dept Med Oncol, NL-3584 CX Utrecht, Netherlands

[13] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Dept Med Psychol, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

[14] Netherlands Comprehens Canc Org IKNL, NL-5612 HZ Eindhoven, Netherlands

[15] Radboud Univ Nijmegen, Med Ctr, Dept Surg, NL-6525 GA Nijmegen, Netherlands

[16] Univ Amsterdam, Amsterdam UMC, Dept Clin Epidemiol Biostat & Bioinformat, NL-1105 AZ Amsterdam, Netherlands

来源：

CANCERS | 2019年 / 11卷 / 02期

关键词：

prediction model; oesophageal cancer; gastric cancer; metastasis; Cox regression; Delphi consensus; CHEMOTHERAPY; PERFORMANCE; DIAGNOSIS; NOMOGRAM; THERAPY;

D O I：

10.3390/cancers11020187

中图分类号：

R73 [肿瘤学];

学科分类号：

100214 ;

摘要：

Prediction models are only sparsely available for metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Because treatment in this setting is often preference-based, decision-making with the aid of a prediction model is wanted. The aim of this study is to construct a prediction model, called SOURCE, for the overall survival in patients with metastatic oesophagogastric cancer. Data from patients with metastatic oesophageal (n = 8010) or gastric (n = 4763) cancer diagnosed during 2005-2015 were retrieved from the nationwide Netherlands cancer registry. A multivariate Cox regression model was created to predict overall survival for various treatments. Predictor selection was performed via the Akaike Information Criterion and a Delphi consensus among experts in palliative oesophagogastric cancer. Validation was performed according to a temporal internal-external scheme. The predictive quality was assessed with the concordance-index (c-index) and calibration. The model c-indices showed consistent discriminative ability during validation: 0.71 for oesophageal cancer and 0.68 for gastric cancer. The calibration showed an average slope of 1.0 and intercept of 0.0 for both tumour locations, indicating a close agreement between predicted and observed survival. With a fair c-index and good calibration, SOURCE provides a solid foundation for further investigation in clinical practice to determine its added value in shared decision making.

引用

页数：18

共 34 条

[1] Gastric Cancer, Version 3.2016 [J].

Ajani, Jaffer A. ;

D'Amico, Thomas A. ;

Almhanna, Khaldoun ;

Bentrem, David J. ;

Chao, Joseph ;

Das, Prajnan ;

Denlinger, Crystal S. ;

Fanta, Paul ;

Farjah, Farhood ;

Fuchs, Charles S. ;

Gerdes, Hans ;

Gibson, Michael ;

Glasgow, Robert E. ;

Hayman, James A. ;

Hochwald, Steven ;

Hofstetter, Wayne L. ;

Ilson, David H. ;

Jaroszewski, Dawn ;

Johung, Kimberly L. ;

Keswani, Rajesh N. ;

Kleinberg, Lawrence R. ;

Korn, W. Michael ;

Leong, Stephen ;

Linn, Catherine ;

Lockhart, A. Craig ;

Ly, Quan P. ;

Mulcahy, Mary F. ;

Orringer, Mark B. ;

Perry, Kyle A. ;

Poultsides, George A. ;

Scott, Walter J. ;

Strong, Vivian E. ;

Washington, Mary Kay ;

Weksler, Benny ;

Willett, Christopher G. ;

Wright, Cameron D. ;

Zelman, Debra ;

McMillian, Nicole ;

Sundar, Hema .

JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE CANCER NETWORK, 2016, 14 (10) :1286-1312

[2] Impact of Chemotherapy on Quality of Life in Patients With Metastatic Esophagogastric Cancer [J].

Al-Batran, Salah-Eddin ;

Ajani, Jaffer A. .

CANCER, 2010, 116 (11) :2511-2518

[3]

[Anonymous], 2018, R LANG ENV STAT COMP

[4]

[Anonymous], 2010, AJCC CANC STAGING MA

[5] MODEL SELECTION AND AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION (AIC) - THE GENERAL-THEORY AND ITS ANALYTICAL EXTENSIONS [J].

BOZDOGAN, H .

PSYCHOMETRIKA, 1987, 52 (03) :345-370

[6]

Collins GS, 2015, ANN INTERN MED, V162, P55, DOI [10.7326/M14-0697, 10.1186/s12916-014-0241-z, 10.1016/j.eururo.2014.11.025, 10.7326/M14-0698, 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2014.11.010, 10.1038/bjc.2014.639, 10.1136/bmj.g7594, 10.1002/bjs.9736]

[7] Medical progress - Esophageal cancer [J].

Enzinger, PC ;

Mayer, RJ .

NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2003, 349 (23) :2241-2252

[8]

Fox J, 2019, R COMPANION APPL REG

[9] Automated Survival Prediction in Metastatic Cancer Patients Using High-Dimensional Electronic Medical Record Data [J].

Gensheimer, Michael F. ;

Henry, A. Solomon ;

Wood, Douglas J. ;

Hastie, Trevor J. ;

Aggarwal, Sonya ;

Dudley, Sara A. ;

Pradhan, Pooja ;

Banerjee, Imon ;

Cho, Eunpi ;

Ramchandran, Kavitha ;

Pollom, Erqi ;

Koong, Albert C. ;

Rubin, Daniel L. ;

Chang, Daniel T. .

JNCI-JOURNAL OF THE NATIONAL CANCER INSTITUTE, 2019, 111 (06) :568-574

[10] Consistent estimation of the expected brier score in general survival models with right-censored event times [J].

Gerds, Thomas A. ;

Schumacher, Martin .

BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL, 2006, 48 (06) :1029-1040

← 1 2 3 4 →