Financial and economic downturns in OECD countries

被引：3

作者：

Haavio, Markus ^{[1
]}

Mendicino, Caterina ^{[2
]}

Punzi, Maria Teresa ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Bank Finland, Dept Monetary Policy & Res, Helsinki 00101, Finland

[2] Bank Portugal, Res Dept, P-1150012 Lisbon, Portugal

[3] Univ Nottingham, Sch Econ, Semenyih 43500, Malaysia

来源：

APPLIED ECONOMICS LETTERS | 2014年 / 21卷 / 06期

关键词：

house prices; economic recessions; concordance index; probit;

D O I：

10.1080/13504851.2013.864025

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

This article empirically studies the linkages between financial variable downturns and economic recessions. We present evidence that real asset prices tend to lead real cycles, while loan-to-GDP and loan-to-deposit ratios lag them. Using a probit anaylsis, we document that downturns in real asset prices, particularly real house prices, are useful leading indicators of economic recessions.

引用

页码：407 / 412

页数：6