Application and limitation of radiomics approach to prognostic prediction for lung stereotactic body radiotherapy using breath-hold CT images with random survival forest: A multi-institutional study

Purpose To predict local recurrence (LR) and distant metastasis (DM) in early stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) in multiple institutions using breath-hold computed tomography (CT)-based radiomic features with random survival forest. Methods A total of 573 primary early stage NSCLC patients who underwent SBRT between January 2006 and March 2016 and met the eligibility criteria were included in this study. Patients were divided into two datasets: training (464 patients in 10 institutions) and test (109 patients in one institution) datasets. A total of 944 radiomic features were extracted from manually segmented gross tumor volumes (GTVs). Feature selection was performed by analyzing inter-segmentation reproducibility, GTV correlation, and inter-feature redundancy. Nine clinical factors, including histology and GTV size, were also used. Three prognostic models (clinical, radiomic, and combined) for LR and DM were constructed using random survival forest (RSF) to deal with total death as a competing risk in the training dataset. Robust models with optimal hyper-parameters were determined using fivefold cross-validation. The patients were dichotomized into two groups based on the median value of the patient-specific risk scores (high- and low-risk score groups). Gray's test was used to evaluate the statistical significance between the two risk score groups. The prognostic power was evaluated by the concordance index with the 95% confidence intervals (CI) via bootstrapping (2000 iterations). Results The concordance indices at 3 yr of clinical, radiomic, and combined models for LR were 0.57 [CI: 0.39-0.75], 0.55 [CI: 0.38-0.73], and 0.61 [CI: 0.43-0.78], respectively, whereas those for DM were 0.59 [CI: 0.54-0.79], 0.67 [CI: 0.54-0.79], and 0.68 [CI: 0.55-0.81], respectively, in the test dataset. The combined DM model significantly discriminated its cumulative incidence between high- and low-risk score groups (P < 0.05). The variable importance of RSF in the combined model for DM indicated that two radiomic features were more important than other clinical factors. The feature maps generated on the basis of the most important radiomic feature had visual difference between high- and low-risk score groups. Conclusions The radiomics approach with RSF for competing risks using breath-hold CT-based radiomic features might predict DM in early stage NSCLC patients who underwent SBRT although that may not have potential to predict LR.