Have increases in Federal Reserve transparency improved private sector interest rate forecasts?

被引:112
作者
Swanson, Eric T. [1 ]
机构
[1] Fed Reserve Bank San Francisco, San Francisco, CA 94105 USA
关键词
transparency; Federal Reserve; central bank; private sector; forecasts;
D O I
10.1353/mcb.2006.0046
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
Yes. This paper shows that since the late 1980s. U.S. financial markets and private sector forecasters have become (1) better able to forecast the federal funds rate at horizons out to several months. (2) less surprised by Federal Reserve announcements. (3) more certain of their interest rate forecasts ex ame. as measured by interest rate options, and (4) less diverse in the cross-sectional variety of their interest rate forecasts. We also present evidence that strongly suggests increases in Federal Reserve transparency played it role: for example, private sector forecasts of GDP and inflation have not experienced similar improvements over the same period indicating that the improvement in interest rate forecasts has been special.
引用
收藏
页码:791 / 819
页数:29
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