Probable maximum precipitation and climate change

被引：242

作者：

Kunkel, Kenneth E. ^{[1
,2
]}

Karl, Thomas R. ^{[2
]}

Easterling, David R. ^{[2
]}

Redmond, Kelly ^{[3
]}

Young, John ^{[4
]}

Yin, Xungang ^{[5
]}

Hennon, Paula ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] N Carolina State Univ, NOAA, Cooperat Inst Climate & Satellites, Raleigh, NC 27695 USA

[2] NOAA Natl Climat Data Ctr, Asheville, NC USA

[3] Univ Nevada, Desert Res Inst, Reno, NV 89506 USA

[4] Univ Wisconsin, Madison, WI USA

[5] ERT Inc, Asheville, NC USA

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2013年 / 40卷 / 07期

关键词：

ATMOSPHERIC RIVER;

D O I：

10.1002/grl.50334

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest accumulation of precipitation for a given duration meteorologically possible for an area. Climate change effects on PMP are analyzed, in particular, maximization of moisture and persistent upward motion, using both climate model simulations and conceptual models of relevant meteorological systems. Climate model simulations indicate a substantial future increase in mean and maximum water vapor concentrations. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the changes in maximum values for the continental United States are approximately 20%-30% by 2071-2100. The magnitudes of the maximum water vapor changes follow temperature changes with an approximate Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. Model-simulated changes in maximum vertical and horizontal winds are too small to offset water vapor changes. Thus, our conclusion is that the most scientifically sound projection is that PMP values will increase in the future due to higher levels of atmospheric moisture content and consequent higher levels of moisture transport into storms.

引用

页码：1402 / 1408

页数：7

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