Artificial intelligence for conflict management

Militarised conflict is one of the risks that have a significant impact on society. Militarised Interstate Dispute (MID) is defined as an outcome of interstate interactions which result on either peace or conflict. Effective prediction of the possibility of conflict between states is an important decision support tool for policy makers. In a previous research, neural networks (NNs) have been implemented to predict the MID. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) have proven themselves to be very good prediction techniques and are introduced for the prediction of MIDs in this study. The results found show that SVM predicts MID better than NN while NN gives more consistent and easy to interpret sensitivity analysis results than SVM.