Forecasting tourism demand: the role of seasonality

被引：28
作者：
Vergori, Anna Serena [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Salento, I-73100 Lecce, Italy
来源：
TOURISM ECONOMICS | 2012年 / 18卷 / 05期
关键词：
seasonality; seasonal adjustments; forecasts; unit roots; Italy; UNIT-ROOT TESTS; STATIONARITY;
D O I：
10.5367/te.2012.0153
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
Most tourism destinations are affected by seasonality. Seasonal demand causes various problems for local firms and administrations hampering the efficient use of available facilities and the development of local capabilities. This paper discusses, from an econometric point of view, another important issue stemming from strong seasonality: the effect on forecasting tourist flows. This aspect of seasonality is addressed through an analysis of tourist arrivals in the Province of Lecce, southern Italy.
引用
收藏
页码：915 / 930
页数：16
相关论文
共 32 条
[1]  
Andriotis K., 2005, Tourism Economics, V11, P207
[2]  
[Anonymous], SEASONALITY TOURISM
[3]  
[Anonymous], LEIS STUD
[4]  
Banerjee A., 1993, ADV TEXTS ECONOMETRI, DOI [10.1093/0198288107.001.0001, DOI 10.1093/0198288107.001.0001, 10.1093/0198288107.003.0007, DOI 10.1093/0198288107.001]
[5]  
Baum T., 1999, International Journal of Tourism Research, V1, P299, DOI 10.1002/(SICI)1522-1970(199909/10)1:5<299::AID-JTR198>3.0.CO
[6]  
2-L
[7]  
BEAULIEU JJ, 1993, J ECONOMETRICS, V55, P305
[8]  
Box G., 1976, Time series analysis: Forecasting and control
[9]  
Butler R.W., 2001, Revue de Tourisme, P5, DOI DOI 10.1108/EB058278
[10]  
CANDELA G, 2003, EC TURISMO
1234