The effect of past experiences on the estimation of the expected shipment times on highly variable routes: a case study in the Lao People's Democratic Republic

Given that goods produced by landlocked developing countries must cross borders and may need to use low-quality seaports to access maritime transport, shipment times often vary. On routes with high variability, the expected shipment times are likely to be estimated on the basis of past shipment experiences rather than on that of general information such as timetables. The objectives of this paper are (1) to examine whether shipment experiences significantly affect the estimation of the expected shipment times and (2) to observe the change of importance in shipment experience on account of route shipment time variability In this study, using a generalised mean formula, a model was developed and applied to five routes originating from the Lao People's Democratic Republic and terminating at seaports in Thailand or Vietnam. We found that shipment experience is more significant than general information in estimating the expected shipment times. As route variability increases, recent experience and general information gain more significance in the estimation of shipment time.