Subjective realities of climate change: how mental maps of impacts deliver socially sensible adaptation options

This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis with the Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events and heat waves are considered and differ across groups. Rain events affect the lower income classes more, while heat waves are the bigger burden for higher income classes. Overall, the strength of perceived impacts is larger for lower income classes, directly threatening their daily incomes. Urban managers have no immediate feedback on their livelihood, but often refer to health issues. The strongest effect on ameliorating burdens is investments in schemes to ease traffic, e.g., by improving the sewage and drainage infrastructure paired with other supply side measures to enable transport of goods for lower income classes during rain. During heat events, improving the water supply situation would reduce burden for all, while constant electricity supply is an effective means in reducing burden for the higher income classes in particular. Our analysis suggests that improvements in the water supply and sewage infrastructure would be the most suitable first step to initiate a well-planned adaptation strategy for all social groups.