Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations

被引：59

作者：

Owens, M. J. ^{[1
]}

Usoskin, I. ^{[2
,3
]}

Lockwood, M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Reading, Space Environm Phys Grp, Dept Meteorol, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England

[2] Univ Oulu, Oulu Unit, Sodankyla Geophys Observ, Oulu, Finland

[3] Univ Oulu, Dept Phys, FIN-90570 Oulu, Finland

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2012年 / 39卷

关键词：

MAGNETIC-FIELD; ACTIVE SUN; RECONSTRUCTION; BE-10;

D O I：

10.1029/2012GL053151

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Galactic cosmic ray flux at Earth is modulated by the heliospheric magnetic field. Heliospheric modulation potential, Phi, during grand solar minima is investigated using an open solar flux (OSF) model with OSF source based on sunspot number, R, and OSF loss on heliospheric current sheet inclination. Changing dominance between source and loss means F varies in- (anti-) phase with R during strong (weak) cycles, in agreement with F estimates from ice core records of Be-10 concentration, which are in- phase during most of the last 300 years, but anti- phase during the Maunder Minimum. Model results suggest "flat" OSF cycles, such as solar cycle 20 result from OSF source and loss terms temporarily balancing throughout the cycle. Thus even if solar activity continues to decline steadily, the long-term drop in OSF through SC21 to SC23 may plateau during SC24, though reemerge in SC25 with the inverted phase relation. Citation: Owens, M. J., I. Usoskin, and M. Lockwood (2012), Heliospheric modulation of galactic cosmic rays during grand solar minima: Past and future variations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19102, doi:10.1029/2012GL053151.

引用

页数：5

共 40 条

[1] For how long will the current grand maximum of solar activity persist? [J].

Abreu, J. A. ;

Beer, J. ;

Steinhilber, F. ;

Tobias, S. M. ;

Weiss, N. O. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2008, 35 (20)

[2] Cyclic variations of the heliospheric tilt angle and cosmic ray modulation [J].

Alanko-Huotari, K. ;

Usoskin, I. G. ;

Mursula, K. ;

Kovaltsov, G. A. .

ADVANCES IN SPACE RESEARCH, 2007, 40 (07) :1064-1069

[3] Solar modulation of cosmogenic nuclide production over the last millennium: comparison between C-14 and Be-10 records [J].

Bard, E ;

Raisbeck, GM ;

Yiou, F ;

Jouzel, J .

EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS, 1997, 150 (3-4) :453-462

[4] Predicting space climate change [J].

Barnard, L. ;

Lockwood, M. ;

Hapgood, M. A. ;

Owens, M. J. ;

Davis, C. J. ;

Steinhilber, F. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2011, 38

[5] Neutron monitor records in broader historical context [J].

Beer, J .

SPACE SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2000, 93 (1-2) :107-119

[6] An active sun throughout the Maunder Minimum [J].

Beer, J ;

Tobias, S ;

Weiss, N .

SOLAR PHYSICS, 1998, 181 (01) :237-249

[7] USE OF BE-10 IN POLAR ICE TO TRACE THE 11-YEAR CYCLE OF SOLAR-ACTIVITY [J].

BEER, J ;

BLINOV, A ;

BONANI, G ;

FINKEL, RC ;

HOFMANN, HJ ;

LEHMANN, B ;

OESCHGER, H ;

SIGG, A ;

SCHWANDER, J ;

STAFFELBACH, T ;

STAUFFER, B ;

SUTER, M ;

WOLFLI, W .

NATURE, 1990, 347 (6289) :164-166

[8] A 600-year annual 10Be record from the NGRIP ice core, Greenland [J].

Berggren, A. -M. ;

Beer, J. ;

Possnert, G. ;

Aldahan, A. ;

Kubik, P. ;

Christl, M. ;

Johnsen, S. J. ;

Abreu, J. ;

Vinther, B. M. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36

[9] Millennial Variations of the Geomagnetic Field: from Data Recovery to Field Reconstruction [J].

Donadini, F. ;

Korte, M. ;

Constable, C. .

SPACE SCIENCE REVIEWS, 2010, 155 (1-4) :219-246

[10] Trends in solar spectral irradiance variability in the visible and infrared [J].

Harder, Jerald W. ;

Fontenla, Juan M. ;

Pilewskie, Peter ;

Richard, Erik C. ;

Woods, Thomas N. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2009, 36

← 1 2 3 4 →