Relative importance of population size, fishing pressure and temperature on the spatial distribution of nine Northwest Atlantic groundfish stocks

The spatial distribution of nine Northwest Atlantic groundfish stocks was documented using spatial indicators based on Northeast Fisheries Science Center spring and fall bottom trawl survey data, 1963-2016. We then evaluated the relative importance of population size, fishing pressure and bottom temperature on spatial distribution with an information theoretic approach. Northward movement in the spring was generally consistent with prior analyses, whereas changes in depth distribution and area occupancy were not. Only two stocks exhibited the same changes in spatiotemporal distribution in the fall as compared with the spring. Fishing pressure was the most important predictor of the center of gravity (i.e., bivariate mean location of the population) for the majority of stocks in the spring, whereas in the fall this was restricted to the east-west component. Fishing pressure was also the most important predictor of the dispersion around the center of gravity in both spring and fall. In contrast, biomass was the most important predictor of area occupancy for the majority of stocks in both seasons. The relative importance of bottom temperature was ranked highest in the fewest number of cases. This study shows that fishing pressure, in addition to the previously established role of climate, influences the spatial distribution of groundfish in the Northwest Atlantic. More broadly, this study is one of a small but growing body of literature to demonstrate that fishing pressure has an effect on the spatial distribution of marine resources. Future work must consider both fishing pressure and climate when examining mechanisms underlying fish distribution shifts.