The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa

被引：116

作者：

Sherrard-Smith, Ellie ^{[1
]}

Hogan, Alexandra B. ^{[1
]}

Hamlet, Arran ^{[1
]}

Watson, Oliver J. ^{[1
]}

Whittaker, Charlie ^{[1
]}

Winskill, Peter ^{[1
]}

Ali, Fatima ^{[2
]}

Mohammad, Audu B. ^{[2
]}

Uhomoibhi, Perpetua ^{[2
]}

Maikore, Ibrahim ^{[2
]}

Ogbulafor, Nnenna ^{[2
]}

Nikau, Jamilu ^{[2
]}

Kont, Mara D. ^{[1
]}

Challenger, Joseph D. ^{[1
]}

Verity, Robert ^{[1
]}

Lambert, Ben ^{[1
]}

Cairns, Matthew ^{[3
]}

Rao, Bhargavi ^{[4
]}

Baguelin, Marc ^{[1
,5
]}

Whittles, Lilith K. ^{[1
]}

Lees, John A. ^{[1
]}

Bhatia, Sangeeta ^{[1
]}

Knock, Edward S. ^{[1
]}

Okell, Lucy ^{[1
]}

Slater, Hannah C. ^{[1
,6
]}

Ghani, Azra C. ^{[1
]}

Walker, Patrick G. T. ^{[1
]}

Okoko, Okefu Oyale ^{[2
]}

Churcher, Thomas S. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Imperial Coll London, MRC, Ctr Global Infect Dis Anal, London, England

[2] Natl Malaria Eliminat Programme, Abuja, Nigeria

[3] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Trop Epidemiol Grp, London, England

[4] Med Sans Frontieres Operat Ctr Amsterdam, Manson Unit, London, England

[5] London Sch Hyg & Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[6] PATH, Seattle, WA USA

来源：

NATURE MEDICINE | 2020年 / 26卷 / 09期

基金：

英国惠康基金; 英国医学研究理事会;

关键词：

CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS; PLASMODIUM-FALCIPARUM; CHILDREN; TRANSMISSION; BURDEN; WUHAN;

D O I：

10.1038/s41591-020-1025-y

中图分类号：

Q5 [生物化学]; Q7 [分子生物学];

学科分类号：

071010 ; 081704 ;

摘要：

Transmission dynamics models of COVID-19 and malaria reveal how different scenarios of COVID-19 spread and varying levels of interruption to antimalarial programs could result in increased deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. The burden of malaria is heavily concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where cases and deaths associated with COVID-19 are rising(1). In response, countries are implementing societal measures aimed at curtailing transmission of SARS-CoV-2(2,3). Despite these measures, the COVID-19 epidemic could still result in millions of deaths as local health facilities become overwhelmed(4). Advances in malaria control this century have been largely due to distribution of long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs)(5), with many SSA countries having planned campaigns for 2020. In the present study, we use COVID-19 and malaria transmission models to estimate the impact of disruption of malaria prevention activities and other core health services under four different COVID-19 epidemic scenarios. If activities are halted, the malaria burden in 2020 could be more than double that of 2019. In Nigeria alone, reducing case management for 6 months and delaying LLIN campaigns could result in 81,000 (44,000-119,000) additional deaths. Mitigating these negative impacts is achievable, and LLIN distributions in particular should be prioritized alongside access to antimalarial treatments to prevent substantial malaria epidemics.

引用

页码：1411 / 1416

页数：19

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