Estimating eigenvalues of dynamical systems from time series with applications to predicting cardiac alternans

The stability of a dynamical system can be indicated by eigenvalues of its underlying mathematical model. However, eigenvalue analysis of a complicated system (e. g. the heart) may be extremely difficult because full models may be intractable or unavailable. We develop data-driven statistical techniques, which are independent of any underlying dynamical model, that use principal components and maximum-likelihood methods to estimate the dominant eigenvalues and their standard errors from the time series of one or a few measurable quantities, e. g. transmembrane voltages in cardiac experiments. The techniques are applied to predicting cardiac alternans that is characterized by an eigenvalue approaching -1. Cardiac alternans signals a vulnerability to ventricular fibrillation, the leading cause of death in the USA.