Accurate risk assessment of patients with asymptomatic hematuria for the presence of bladder cancer

Bladder cancer is frequently diagnosed during a workup for hematuria. However, most patients with microscopic hematuria and many with gross hematuria are not appropriately referred to urologists. We hypothesized that in patients presenting with asymptomatic hematuria the risk of having bladder cancer can be predicted with high accuracy. Toward this end, we analyzed risk factors in patients with asymptomatic hematuria and developed a nomogram for the prediction of bladder cancer presence. Data from 1,182 consecutive subjects without a history of bladder cancer undergoing initial evaluation for asymptomatic hematuria were collected at three centers. Clinical risk factors including age, gender, smoking status, and degree of hematuria were recorded. All subjects underwent standard workup including voided cytology, upper tract imaging, and cystourethroscopy. Factors associated with the presence of bladder cancer were evaluated by univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses. The multivariable analysis was used to construct a nomogram. Internal validation was performed using 200 bootstrap samples. Of the 1,182 subjects who presented with asymptomatic hematuria, 245 (20.7 %) had bladder cancer. Increasing age (OR = 1.03, p < 0.0001), smoking history (OR = 3.72, p < 0.0001), gross hematuria (OR = 1.71, p = 0.002), and positive cytology (OR = 14.71, p < 0.0001) were independent predictors of bladder cancer presence. The multivariable model achieved 83.1 % accuracy for predicting the presence of bladder cancer. Bladder cancer presence can be predicted with high accuracy in patients who present with asymptomatic hematuria. We developed a nomogram to help optimize referral patterns (i.e., timing and prioritization) of patients with asymptomatic hematuria.