Profiles of Cognitive Change in Preclinical and Prodromal Alzheimer's Disease Using Change-Point Analysis

Background: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is now understood to have a long preclinical phase in which pathology starts to accumulate in the absence of clinical symptoms. Identifying the temporal stages of accelerated cognitive decline in this phase may help in developing more sensitive neuropsychological tools for early screening of preclinical cognitive decline. Change-point analyses are increasingly used to characterize the temporal stages of accelerated cognitive decline in the preclinical stages of AD. However, statistical comparisons of change-points between specific cognitive measures have not been reported. Objective: To characterize and compare the temporal stages of accelerated decline in performance on multiple cognitive tests in a sample of participants from the Baltimore Longitudinal Study on Aging (BLSA) who later developed AD. Methods: 165 older adults (baseline age range: 61.1-91.2) from the BLSA developed AD during follow-up. Linear and non-linear mixed models were fit for 11 cognitive measures to determine change-points in rates of decline before AD diagnosis. Bootstrapping was used to compare the timing of change-points across cognitive measures. Results: Change-points followed by accelerated decline ranged from 15.5 years (Standard Error (S.E.) = 1.72) for Card Rotations to 1.9 years (S.E. = 0.68) for the Trail-Making Test Part A before AD diagnosis. Accelerated decline in Card Rotations occurred significantly earlier than all other measures, including learning and memory measures. Conclusion: Results suggest that visuospatial ability, as assessed by Card Rotations, may have the greatest utility as an early predictive tool in identifying preclinical AD.