Reified Bayesian modelling and inference for physical systems

被引:90
作者
Goldstein, Michael [2 ]
Rougier, Jonathan [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Bristol, Dept Math, Bristol BS8 1TW, Avon, England
[2] Univ Durham, Dept Math Sci, Durham DH1 3HP, England
基金
英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;
关键词
Computer simulator; Emulator; Model inadequacy; Structural error; Thermohaline circulation (THC); Model design; COMPUTER; CALIBRATION; PREDICTION; ENSEMBLE; FUTURE; DESIGN;
D O I
10.1016/j.jspi.2008.07.019
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
We describe ail approach, termed reified analysis, for linking the behaviour of mathematical models with inferences about the physical systems which the models represent. We describe the logical basis for the approach, based oil coherent assessment of the implications of deficiencies in the mathematical model. We show how the statistical analysis may be carried out by specifying stochastic relationships between the model that we have, improved versions of the model that we might construct, and the system itself. We illustrate our approach with an example concerning the potential shutdown of the Thermohaline circulation in the Atlantic Ocean. (C) 2008 Elsevier BY. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:1221 / 1239
页数:19
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