Exploring the future change space for fire weather in southeast Australia

被引:78
作者
Clarke, Hamish [1 ,2 ,3 ,4 ,5 ]
Evans, Jason P. [4 ,5 ]
机构
[1] Univ Wollongong, Ctr Environm Risk Management Bushfires, Northfields Ave, Wollongong, NSW 2522, Australia
[2] Western Sydney Univ, Hawkesbury Inst Environm, Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
[3] NSW Off Environm & Heritage, Climate & Atmospher Sci Branch, Box 3720, Parramatta, PO, Australia
[4] Univ New South Wales, Sch Biol Earth & Environm Sci, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
[5] Univ New South Wales, Climate Change Res Ctr, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
关键词
CLIMATE-CHANGE; EASTERN AUSTRALIA; MODEL; FOREST; RISK; AREA; SENSITIVITY; PROJECTIONS; SIMULATION; DRIVERS;
D O I
10.1007/s00704-018-2507-4
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
High-resolution projections of climate change impacts on fire weather conditions in southeast Australia out to 2080 are presented. Fire weather is represented by the McArthur Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI), calculated from an objectively designed regional climate model ensemble. Changes in annual cumulative FFDI vary widely, from -337 (-21%) to +657 (+24%) in coastal areas and -237 (-12%) to +1143 (+26%) in inland areas. A similar spread is projected in extreme FFDI values. In coastal regions, the number of prescribed burning days is projected to change from -11 to +10 in autumn and -10 to +3 in spring. Across the ensemble, the most significant increases in fire weather and decreases in prescribed burn windows are projected to take place in spring. Partial bias correction of FFDI leads to similar projections but with a greater spread, particularly in extreme values. The partially bias-corrected FFDI performs similarly to uncorrected FFDI compared to the observed annual cumulative FFDI (ensemble root mean square error spans 540 to 1583 for uncorrected output and 695 to 1398 for corrected) but is generally worse for FFDI values above 50. This emphasizes the need to consider inter-variable relationships when bias-correcting for complex phenomena such as fire weather. There is considerable uncertainty in the future trajectory of fire weather in southeast Australia, including the potential for less prescribed burning days and substantially greater fire danger in spring. Selecting climate models on the basis of multiple criteria can lead to more informative projections and allow an explicit exploration of uncertainty.
引用
收藏
页码:513 / 527
页数:15
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