Uncertainties in anthropogenic aerosol concentrations and direct radiative forcing induced by emission inventories in eastern China

被引：17

作者：

Chang, Wenyuan ^{[1
]}

Liao, Hong ^{[1
]}

Xin, Jinyuan ^{[1
]}

Li, Zhengqiang ^{[2
]}

Li, Donghui ^{[2
]}

Zhang, Xiaoye ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Atmospher Boundary Layer Phys & Atm, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China

[2] Chinese Acad Sci, State Environm Protect Key Lab Satellites Remote, Inst Remote Sensing & Digital Earth, Beijing 100094, Peoples R China

[3] Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Key Lab Atmospher Chem, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China

来源：

ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH | 2015年 / 166卷

关键词：

Emission uncertainty; Aerosol concentration; Direct radiative forcing; ACCMIP; OPTICAL-PROPERTIES; BLACK CARBON; ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY; TROPOSPHERIC OZONE; SULFATE AEROSOL; MODEL; PRODUCTS; TRENDS; MODIS; ASIA;

D O I：

10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.06.021

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

This study quantified the uncertainties in concentrations and direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols due to emissions in eastern China using a global chemistry-aerosol-climate model. The emission inventories included three global inventories, ACCMIP (Atmospheric Chemistry & Climate Model Intercomparison Project), EDGAR-HTAP (Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research for Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution), and EDGAR Version 4.2, and one regional INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment-Phase B) inventory. The uncertainties (a percentage of the standard deviation divided by the mean value across the four inventories) in the regional surface-layer aerosol concentrations due to emissions were 3.9% in sulfate, 40.0% in nitrate, 18.4% in ammonium, 11.1% in POA, 16.7% in SOA and 15.4% in BC. Compared with the ACCMIP model results based on a uniform emission inventory, the impacts of emissions were smaller. One exception is the regional surface-layer nitrate concentration, which had comparable uncertainties due to the emissions (40.0%) and the models (43.8%) because of the complex nitrate chemistry and the highly uncertain NH3 emission. The mean regional aerosol direct forcing at the top of the atmosphere between 1850 and 2006 was -3.6 Wm(-2) under all-sky conditions and was enhanced up to -3.83 Wm(-2) after the model assimilated the MODIS find-mode aerosol optical depth (ACID). The impact of the assimilation of absorption AOD is discussed. The uncertainties in aerosol direct forcing were smaller than those of the ACCMIP inter-model results, but still significant. An accurate emission inventory is essential for quantifying the role of aerosols in regional climate. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：129 / 140

页数：12

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