A neural network to predict symptomatic lung injury

A nonlinear neural network that simultaneously uses pre-radiotherapy (RT) biological and physical data was developed to predict symptomatic lung injury. The input data were pre-RT pulmonary function, three-dimensional treatment plan doses and demographics. The output was a single value between 0 (asymptomatic) and 1 (symptomatic) to predict the likelihood that a particular patient would become symptomatic. The network was trained on data from 97 patients for 400 iterations with the goal to minimize the mean-squared error. Statistical analysis was performed on the resulting network to determine the model's accuracy. Results from the neural network were compared with those given by traditional linear discriminate analysis and the dose-volume histogram reduction (DVHR) scheme of Kutcher. Receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed on the resulting network which had Az = 0.833 +/- 0.04. (Az is the area under the ROC curve.) Linear discriminate multivariate analysis yielded an Az = 0.813 +/- 0.06. The DVHR method had Az = 0.521 +/- 0.08. The network was also used to rank the significance of the input variables. Future studies will be conducted to improve network accuracy and to include functional imaging data.