A Reduced-Form Rapid Economic Consequence Estimating Model: Application to Property Damage from US Earthquakes

被引:20
作者
Heatwole, Nathaniel [1 ]
Rose, Adam [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ So Calif, Natl Ctr Risk & Econ Anal Terrorism Events CREATE, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA
[2] Univ So Calif, Price Sch Publ Policy, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA
关键词
earthquakes; natural hazard loss estimation; property damage; rapid estimation; reduced-form modeling; United States; NATURAL DISASTERS;
D O I
10.1007/s13753-013-0004-z
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Modeling the economic consequences of disasters has reached a high level of maturity and accuracy in recent years. Methods for providing reasonably accurate rapid estimates of economic losses, however, are still limited. This article presents the case for "reduced-form" models for rapid economic consequence estimation for disasters, and specifies and statistically estimates a regression equation for property damage from significant U.S. earthquakes. Explanatory variables are of two categories: (1) hazard-related variables pertaining to earthquake characteristics; and (2) exposure-related variables pertaining to socioeconomic conditions. Comparisons to other available earthquake damage estimates indicate that our Reduced-Form Model yields reasonably good results, including several statistically significant variables that are consistent with a priori hypotheses. The article concludes with a discussion of how the research can be enhanced through the collection of data on additional variables, and of the potential for the extension of the reduced-form modeling approach to other hazard types.
引用
收藏
页码:20 / 32
页数:13
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