Reproductive isolation between phylogeographic lineages scales with divergence

Phylogeographic studies frequently reveal multiple morphologically cryptic lineages within species. What is not yet clear is whether such lineages represent nascent species or evolutionary ephemera. To address this question, we compare five contact zones, each of which occurs between ecomorphologically cryptic lineages of skinks from the rainforests of the Australian Wet Tropics. Although the contacts probably formed concurrently in response to Holocene expansion from glacial refugia, we estimate that the divergence times (tau) of the lineage pairs range from 3.1 to 11.5 Ma. Multi-locus analyses of the contact zones yielded estimates of reproductive isolation that are tightly correlated with divergence time and, for lineages with older divergence times (tau > 5 Myr), substantial. These results show that phylogeographic splits of increasing depth represent stages along the speciation continuum, even in the absence of overt change in ecologically relevant morphology.