Extended Human Papillomavirus Genotyping to Predict Progression to High-Grade Cervical Precancer: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Southeastern United States

Background: High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing is utilized in primary cervical cancer screening, generally along with cytology, to triage abnormalities to colposcopy. Most screening -based hrHPV testing involves pooled detection of any hrHPV or of HPV16/18. Cervical neoplasia progression risks based on extended hrHPV genotyping-particularly non-16/18 hrHPV types-are not well characterized. HPV genotype-specific incidence of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia or more severe (CIN2+) following an abnormal screening result was examined. Methods: We assessed a US-based prospective, multiracial, clinical cohort of 343 colposcopy patients with normal histology (n = 226) or CIN1 (n = 117). Baseline cervical samples underwent HPV DNA genotyping, and participants were followed up to 5 years. Genotype-specific CIN2+ incidence rates (IR) were estimated with accelerated failure time models. Five-year CIN2+ risks were estimated nonparametrically for hierarchical hrHPV risk groups (HPV16; else HPV18/45; else HPV31/33/35/52/58; else HPV39/ 51/56/59/68). Results: At enrollment, median participant age was 30.1 years; most (63%) were hrHPV-positive. Over follow-up, 24 participants progressed to CIN2+ (7.0%). CIN2+ IR among hrHPV-positive participants was 3.4/1,000 person-months. CIN2+ IRs were highest for HPV16 (8.3), HPV33 (7.8), and HPV58 (4.9). Five-year CIN2+ risk was higher for HPV16 (0.34) compared with HPV18/45 (0.12), HPV31/33/35/52/58 (0.12), and HPV39/51/56/59/68 (0.16) (P = 0.05). Conclusions: Non-16/18 hrHPV types are associated with differential CIN2+ progression rates. HPV16, 33, and 58 exhibited the highest rates over 5 years. HPV risk groups warrant further investigation in diverse US populations. Impact: These novel data assessing extended HPV genotyping in a diverse clinical cohort can inform future directions to improve screening practices in the general population.