FERTILITY CHANGES IN CENTRAL ASIA SINCE 1980

Limited studies document the fertility changes in Central Asia. Using survey and official data, this study describes the fertility changes since 1980 in Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan. I first consider the swift decline in fertility in the 1980s and 1990s through the analysis of Synthetic Parity Progression Ratios (SPPRs). SPPRs show that women still have at least one child despite economic difficulties and that the end of communism affected more the transition to higher-order births. These results are however influenced by economic and demographic factors specific to each country. I investigate then the fertility upturn that is observed since the early 2000s-an issue neglected so far by demographers. Results from the analysis of official and household data show that in each country, the recent fertility increase resulted from the increase of distinct birth orders and was concentrated in specific ethnic groups.