Bayesian Models of Individual Differences: Combining Autistic Traits and Sensory Thresholds to Predict Motion Perception

According to Bayesian models, perception and cognition depend on the optimal combination of noisy incoming evidence with prior knowledge of the world. Individual differences in perception should therefore be jointly determined by a person's sensitivity to incoming evidence and his or her prior expectations. It has been proposed that individuals with autism have flatter prior distributions than do nonautistic individuals, which suggests that prior variance is linked to the degree of autistic traits in the general population. We tested this idea by studying how perceived speed changes during pursuit eye movement and at low contrast. We found that individual differences in these two motion phenomena were predicted by differences in thresholds and autistic traits when combined in a quantitative Bayesian model. Our findings therefore support the flatter-prior hypothesis and suggest that individual differences in prior expectations are more systematic than previously thought. In order to be revealed, however, individual differences in sensitivity must also be taken into account.